Large parts of the world's coastlines are exposed to extreme
high-water levels, which have the potential to cause widespread flooding and
costly damages (Nicholls et al., 2007; Haigh et al., 2011; Pugh and
Woodworth, 2014). Knowledge on potential water level extremes is thus
essential for coastal protection strategies and is usually building upon
observations (e.g., from tide gauges). These instruments measure the local
water level in response to astronomical (i.e., tide) and meteorological
forcing (i.e., surge) superimposed onto the base water level (i.e., mean sea
level). For more than 60 years, nonlinear tide-surge interactions (TSI) have
been reported for many places but no global quantification was available so
far. Here, a novel approach to statistically assess TSI is presented (see
also Arns et al., 2020). The approach is useful to value TSI contributions
to total water levels by up to 30% or 70 cm at some places, a value which is
similiar to recent sea level rise projections by 2100 (based on a
temperature increase of +1.5° by 2100). Conversely, extreme value
analysis — as routinely utilized by current coastal impact studies
— may overestimate return water levels by an amount equal to or larger
than future sea level rise projections, if TSI is not accounted for. Not
accounting for TSI also leads to an overestimation of present-day coastal
exposure. Using the DIVA modeling framework, reduced estimates of global
sea-flood costs by nearly 16% and population exposed by almost 8% are found
when TSI is considered.
In March 2020, Arne Arns became Professor for Coastal Protection and Coastal Dynamics at the University of Rostock. Since the beginning of his Ph.D. at the University of Siegen in 2009, Arne has investigated the risk of storm surges and coastal floods around the world. His work focuses in particular on climate-induced influences on coastal extremes, as well as on underlying interactions.
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