Although environmental requirements of seagrasses have been
studied for years, reliable metrics for predicting their response to
current or future conditions remains elusive. Eelgrass (Zostera
marina L.) populations of the Chesapeake region lie near the
southern limit of their range in the Western Atlantic, exposing them to
increasing thermal stress as the climate warms. However, CO2
stimulated photosynthesis may offset some of the negative effects of
temperature stress. The combined effects of temperature,
CO2, and light availability controlled by water quality and
epiphytes were explored using GrassLight, a bio-optical model
that provided a predictive environment for evaluating the interaction of
multiple stressors on eelgrass distribution and density across the
submarine landscape. Model predictions were validated against in
situ measures of spectral diffuse attentuation and eelgrass density
and distribution. The model accurately reproduced the submarine light
environment from measured water quality parameters and predicted their
impacts on eelgrass distribution. It also reproduced the negative
effects of thermal stress on eelgrass growing in the Chesapeake region,
even in the presence of epiphytes. Thus, improved water quality should
facilitate the survival of eelgrass populations in Chesapeake Bay, even
in the face of a warming climate. The bio-optical model is now being
integrated into a realistic hydrodynamic simulation using ROMS to
explore the relevant spatial and temporal scales necessary to accurately
inform options regarding the development of a baywide strategy for
managing eelgrass and other SAV in the face of a changing climate.
Richard C. Zimmerman is a biological oceanographer with over 30 years experience in experimental plant physiology, primary productivity of coastal ecosystems, aquatic optics and instrument development for ocean observation. He received B.S., M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in Biology from the University of Southern California. Current research interests include the combined impacts of climate change and water quality on submerged aquatic vegetation and estuarine phytoplankton, and the development of compact lidar systems for remotely observing the vertical structure of the surface ocean.
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